Links March 22 – A massive review of social assistance and gender empowerment; overcoming barriers to social insurance by self-employed and gig workers; unemployment insurance in Mauritius; inequality of opportunity in Africa; access to social protection by migrants in the Netherlands; accounting for marginal propensity to consume can affect fiscal multipliers in Europe; cash transfers and nutrients in Kenya; assessing the shock-responsiveness of Philippines’ social protection system; the effects of ESSN in Turkey; cash coordination in the regional Ukraine response; and several events coming up!

A biggie is out: can social assistance help empower women economically and socially? By assembling over a thousand effect sizes from 106 papers (most of which published over the past five years), Peterman et al have a systematic review poised to become a classic. Their analysis reveals positive impacts across the board, including “highly significant pooled effects across outcomes (…), with similar magnitude of effects for economic achievement and agency outcomes”. Specifically, social assistance generates strongest effects on assets, savings, expenditures, labor supply at the extensive (participation) and intensive margin (hours worked), voice, autonomy, and decision-making; yet effects on aspirations, leadership, debt, and care work intensity are more limited, underpowered, or insignificant. In terms of instruments, most robust effects were detected for unconditional cash transfers, asset transfers, and social care; these are followed by public works, while conditional cash transfers, in-kind food and vouchers have smaller or insignificant impacts. This is because the latter programs “restrict household and individual women’s choices regarding use of benefit [and] leading to reinforcement of gender roles and excess time burden on women”. And comes with a blog!

Another tough question: how to rethink social insurance for self-employed and gig workers? A S4YE brief reviews international innovations to overcome key constraints around worker’s liquidity, registration, and outreach. Experiences include devising automatic, small, and flexible payments (e.g., Cabify drivers in Peru); offer monetary and non-monetary incentives (e.g., Rwanda’s Ejo Heza scheme); tap digital technologies and leveraging ID systems for simplified registration (e.g., Haba Haba in Kenya); forging partnerships with gig platforms to compile self-employed registries (e.g., India’s e-Shram portal); and use behavioral nudges (e.g., Mexico’s AforeMovil). Bonus on e-Shram: WIEGO has a short note by Sinha and a podcast on the Indian portal.

BTW, zooming into a particular form of social insurance: a blog by Liepmann and Pignatti argues that unemployment insurance for formal sector workers has important effects on employment and earnings among recipients in a highly informal context like Mauritius.

A fair shot? A super-paper by Atamanov et al quantifies inequality of opportunity in Africa and finds that inherited circumstances (e.g., birthplace, parents’ education, and ethnicity) explain 54% of such inequality (ranging from 26% in Ethiopia to 74% in South Africa, see table 2, p.11). Bonus on inequality: simulations by Galvani and Nasrudin show that gender inequality is best reduced via elimination of income taxes for the bottom tier and increasing the adequacy of cash transfers (PKH and BPNT) relative to other tax and transfers options.

Speaking of unlevel playing fields, an article by Yu and Nimeh investigates the segmentation in the utilization of the Dutch welfare system by natives and migrants. Compared to Dutch natives with low education levels at age 39-60, after more than 20 years of residence the risk of marginalization is present for most first-generation immigrants without higher education (see results in table 2).

Let’s stay in Europe, with a paper by Albacete et al estimating the average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across 22 countries: this is 0.46 on average, which varies both across countries and along percentile distribution (see figure 2, p.11, with the poorest having an MPC about 50% higher than that of the richest). This matters for expected multipliers of fiscal policy: for instance, what happens if a lump sum transfer is provided to the bottom decile compared to the top 10%? The consumption response is 11% higher when the fiscal stimulus is targeted to the lowest instead of the highest income deciles (see table 4, p.16).

Since I mentioned consumption… Ongudi et al estimate that, compared to people in control locations, Kenya’s Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) beneficiaries increased the consumption of various nutrients (especially as sourced from the market), including energy, carbohydrates, and fiber by 6-10%; calcium (+19%); heme iron (+38%); vitamin A (96%); and beta carotene (61%). Interestingly, also non-beneficiaries living in HSNP areas exhibited higher vitamin A and beta carotene than peers in control areas.

Moving to Asia, a paper by Aldaba and Geronimo synthesizes the adaptability of the Philippine’s social protection system as emerging from the 2013 typhoon Haiyan emergency, the pandemic response, and inflation in 2022-2023. While overall positive, the analysis points out the “lack of a comprehensive, interoperable, and digital social registry and verification mechanism”, “limited financial resources and budget policies for disaster management”, and various forms of “duplications” and “fragmentation” among stakeholders.

Oh, on crises… Robson et al have a new article showing that the Emergency Social Safety Net in Turkey helped improve food security, living standards, health and education of beneficiaries.

Some interesting humanitarian resources! Key Aid Consulting has a collection of “rapid reflections” on cash coordination in the regional Ukraine response system, with individual case studies produced for Ukraine, Poland, Romania and Moldova. And a paper by ActionAid and Violet Organization on Northwest Syria concluded that while “humanitarian programming often includes consultations with the affected communities (…) such consultations are often a box-ticking exercise rather than a meaningful engagement”.

And mark your calendars: a seminar on April 4 will discuss the transition from social assistance to employment related social insurance in MENA; the following day an event will focus on social protection for older persons in Southern Africa; a the call for papers for the Basic Income Earth Network annual conference in Bath, August 29-31is out (h/t Neil Howard).